ProbaLab turns intimidating probability into intuition. Expected value, random number generation, drop rates and variance — explained visually, with worked examples from real game systems, for designers and curious players.
No prerequisites beyond arithmetic. Each module builds one clear idea and shows it running inside a real game mechanic.
Sample spaces, independent events and why "1 in 100" almost never means what players think it does. We build intuition first, notation second.
What a system pays out "on average", how to compute it, and how averages hide the swings players actually feel. The core tool for balancing rewards.
How RNG really works under the hood, uniform vs. shaped distributions, seeds, and the difference between "random" and "feels random" to a player.
Designing reward tables that read well, pity systems and pity math, and how tiny rate changes ripple across a full play session.
Why two systems with the same average feel completely different. Standard deviation as a design dial for tension, streaks and fairness.
Put it together: model a small reward economy end to end in a spreadsheet, tune it, and read what the numbers are telling you.
Say a chest rolls one item from four tiers. Players see "rare — 5%" and expect it soon. You, the designer, need the whole picture: how often each tier lands, what a player earns on average per open, and how long an unlucky streak can run.
Start with the expected value of a single open. Assign each tier a value, weight it by its probability, and sum:
E[open] = Σ value(tier) × P(tier)
Change one rate and the whole feel shifts. That's the lesson — the chart on the right is live math, not decoration. Every module ends with a small model like this you can open, poke and break.
Enroll to get the full lessonExample drop table — one open
Distribution shape
Short lessons, one idea each, always tied to something you can see move. You learn by adjusting numbers, not by memorising proofs.
Every concept opens with a diagram or a simulation. The formula arrives only once the picture already makes sense, so notation stops being scary.
Watch one, try it, move on. No lecture marathons.
Sliders and small models let you change a rate and watch the outcome shift instantly.
Downloadable spreadsheets and exercises rebuild each idea for a mechanic of your own — a drop table, a crit system, an event reward — so the math sticks by doing.
ProbaLab grew out of years of balancing reward systems and explaining the same probability ideas to teammates over and over. The course is the explanation done properly once: plain language, worked numbers, and the shortcuts that only come from shipping systems and watching players react to them.
The goal isn't to turn you into a mathematician. It's to make you comfortable reasoning about randomness — so when a system feels off, you can open a sheet, find the number that's wrong, and fix it with confidence instead of guesswork.
Not "I finished a course" — designers who now open a sheet, find the number that's off, and tune a system on purpose.
I used to set drop rates by feel and hope the swings averaged out. Now I write the expected value first, then read the variance to see how bad a dry streak can get — and I can defend every number in review instead of shrugging.
The variance module was the click for me. Two reward tables with the same average felt like completely different games, and now I know exactly why — and which dial to turn when a system feels too swingy or too flat.
I came in scared of the notation and left building a full reward model in a spreadsheet over a weekend. The visuals-first order really works: I saw each idea move before a single formula showed up, so the math finally stuck.
Buy once, keep it for good — including future lesson updates. Prices in Polish złoty (zł). Payment is arranged after you enroll; the form never asks for card details.
No toggles to hunt through — every answer is open on the page, the way a good worksheet lays it all out.
No. If you're comfortable with basic arithmetic and can read a spreadsheet, you're ready. Every idea is built up from scratch, visually, before any formula appears.
Strictly game-design math. RNG, drop rates, loot tables and variance are treated purely as tools for building fair, satisfying game systems — the numbers a designer picks, never money riding on a result.
Access is lifetime. Watch at your own pace, revisit lessons whenever a system puzzles you, and get future updates to the material at no extra cost.
Twelve downloadable spreadsheets and exercises. Each rebuilds a lesson's idea for a real mechanic — a drop table, a crit chance, an event reward — so you practise the math by tuning something that behaves like a game.
You enroll through the form, then we email a payment link. Nothing is charged up front, and the form never collects card numbers. Once payment clears, your access and downloads arrive by email.
Write to [email protected] and a person who built the lessons will answer — usually within a day.
Tell us where to send access and which pack you'd like. We'll reply from [email protected] with a payment link — usually within a day.
Prefer to ask first? Write to [email protected] or call +48 784 319 024.
